Food prices volatility: watch this space

iatp.logoA recent article by the Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy (IATP) outlines the food price situation and the actions that need to be taken to reduce price volatility. In 2012, as prices began to creep higher and a third food price spike since 2007 looked likely, governments should have been poised to act to curb food price volatility once and for all. As the IATP authors believe, governments did not take this opportunity and failed to address the root causes of food price volatility.

This recent article is an update to the authors’ 2012 report, Resolving the Food Crisis, and calls for action to be taken around a series of themes:

  • Donor funding for agricultural development
  • Reducing biofuels expansion
  • Curbing financial speculation on agricultural commodities
  • Building food reserves
  • Halting land grabs
  • Addressing climate change

These issues are neither original nor specific to solving the problem of food price spikes. Instead they are frequently raised by NGOs and other stakeholders across the world and, as the authors point out, these problems are not going away. Not enough is being done to address them. There are huge opportunities for progress in 2013 but whether governments will seize them is another matter, as history attests. Action to address food price volatility from the G20 has revolved to date primarily around the Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) and, while G20 leaders plan to meet in Russia this year, no meeting of agricultural ministers is planned. Decisions over the future vision of the World Trade Organisation Doha Development Round could be an opportunity to ensure trade rules ‘protect and promote food security,’ but given the previous disarray of the Doha Round this may be too much to hope for. New farm legislation in the US and reform of the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU show little sign of being transformative. [Read more…]

What we’ve been reading this week

Every week we summarise the news stories and blogs that have grabbed our attention. We welcome your thoughts and comments on these articles.

Bill gates reviews One Billion Hungry: Can We Feed the World, The Gates Notes

How to manage post-harvest loss, The Guardian Farming and Food Security Hub

A vaccine to boost global food production, Israel 21c

Africa: underestimating GDP, Financial Times, beyondbrics

EU Parliament agrees CAP reform ‘compromises’, Farmers Guardian

Food and petrol prices keep inflation unchanged at 2.7%, The Guardian

Soil determines fate of phosphorous, Brown University

Recent patterns of crop yield growth and stagnation, Nature communications

Betting on Hunger: Is Financial Speculation to Blame for High Food Prices?, Time

Joyce Banda: ‘I want Malawians to say our country became a better place’, The Guardian

“Peak farmland” is here, crop area to diminish: study, Reuters

A global agricultural boom for Brazil, The Washington Post

 

Food Price Rises: The Role of Speculation

Scientists from the New England Complex Systems Institute, in a paper published in September 2011, identified investor speculation and ethanol conversion as the two key causes of changes in food prices over the period 2004 to 2011. The latter linked to a gradual upward trend in prices, the former to food price spikes. Global food prices since 2007 have seen two surges whereby prices have increased by over 50% in less than a year. Authors of the paper warn that policy action to curb speculation in global food markets is urgent if we are to avoid another surge at the end of 2012. This is also important for the long-term given that the UN predicts food prices will rise by at least 40% in the next decade.

Speculation in the food market in the past has been limited to actors within the food industry itself. By setting a price, agreed between farmer and trader, prior to the harvest, risks were minimised as the farmer received a good price even in a bad year and the trader received a better than  average price in good years. In general, speculation had a stabilizing effect on food prices. With the liberalisation of markets in the late 1990s, however, non-food industry actors have become involved and speculation in the food commodities market by financial institutions has grown rapidly. In 2003 the market was worth £3 billion but by 2008 its worth had risen to over £55 billion. [Read more…]